Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Trump seems to be leading, barely, in Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, with Michigan a toss-up. I'm going to go out on a limb and make a tentative prediction: The GOP will hold the senate and the house. A couple months ago Trump looked so far behind that there were legitimate worries he'd drag down the senate as well in a Mondale-scale blowout. But now it's relatively neck and neck.
 I think Clinton, like Obama, has a much better ground game. But it's possible that people are underreporting their support for Trump, the old Nixon silent majority bit. So the election remains too close to call. I certainly do expect the GOP to lose seats in the senate, starting with Indiana.

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