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Monday, May 23, 2016

“Will Democrats Try To Beat Trump By Discouraging Conservative Voters?”

http://electionlawblog.org/?p=83008

   Democrats, i.e. Hillary, can increase their chances in the general election by helping to make sure that third parties are fully included, both on the ballot and in the campaigns.
Hillary no doubt remembers 1992, when Ross Perot split off enough votes from Bush to put Hillary in the White House with 38% of the vote, and 2000, when Ralph Nader split off enough votes from Gore to put a Bush back in the White House, with was it 48%, with a little help from the court.

  Her main tool in that process is the debates. Hillary should approach the LWV to sponsor debates, and decline to participate in the HighlyPartisan Debate Commission events. 
Debates that include Libertarian Gary Johnson, and his running mate Bill Weld - assuming as I do that they will be the nominees at the convention in Orlando this month, which work keeps me from attending this year, will lift Johnson out of the 1% range into maybe 3-8%, which could be the boost Hillary needs, if any. 

   In order to make this strategy seem less like the ploy that it is, Jill Stein of the Greens should also be included. That would give an option for those who want to vote for a woman who isn't Hillary, and be an outlet for disaffected Berniephiles. I don't think Stein's numbers would offset Johnson's by enough to matter. Johnson and Weld have both served as GOP governors, making them credible alternatives to the anti-Trump faction. Both are known as moderates, while the Libertarian platform appeals to some farther-right Republicans. Johnson also has an edge with the pro-pot vote, which is non-trivial as we've seen in places like Colorado and the West Coast states,
although this makes it easier to treat him as a fringe candidate.  

 I do not see Johnson getting Perot-like numbers, but getting into Nader territory is doable.
Although Johnson would siphon off some Hillary votes, he mainly represents an alternative to Trump. Not a strong alternative, since I don't think anyone thinks he can win, but is a "send a message" type candidate, as Nader was.

   Another thing Hillary could do would be to include Johnson (and Stein or at least "other") in her polling. This will make her numbers and his look better, and more accurately reflect the real race.
Polls which list only Hillary and Trump introduce a margin of error that can be avoided, because they do not reflect the actual choices voters have.

  I would be likely to vote for Johnson over Trump if they let me vote, but they generally don't. Absentee voting might be an option this year depending on my work schedule. Anyway, if the Hillary campaign treats Johnson as a serious candidate, so will enough of the media, and then so will enough of the people. Hillary is not known for taking my campaign advice, but I won't be the only one saying these things. The debates are key, and polling is a way to justify debate inclusion.

update: this story says many of the same things i said here, and says that fox has Johnson at 10%, which seems high. Ok, the cite it gives is rewritten LP press release.
http://prospect.org/article/will-libertarians-help-elect-hillary-clinton
This article http://www.vox.com/2016/5/24/11740210/libertarian-party-2016 has a lot of insider baseball on the Johnson-Weld race. I didn't know, for example, that Weld had the LP nomination for governor of New York in 2006, but then dropped out, costing the LP ballot status in that important fusion state.

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