Monday, October 27, 2014
now that early voting is in progress and the election is just days away, i'm going to do a post on how things look for the GOP taking the senate.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/chamber-predicts-republican-senate-will-last-just-two-years/article/2555318
first up here's an astute and balanced argument that the Dems are likely to retake the senate in 2016.
Iowa, Arkansas, Colorado, and Alaska, are tilting toward Republican candidates. Control of the Senate itself hangs in the balance, and most major forecast models now predict the GOP has a greater than 60 percent chance of winning the chamber. - Christian Science Monitor. Prediction: run-off in Georgia, so we won't know the exact number of seats till later. I think the GOP will get 50 seats without Georgia, but will they get 51?
Colorado: Udall v Gardner, too close to call. we don't know how mail ballots will follow polling,and the polls are tied. tossups CO KS LA GA. I predict the GOP will get at least one of these, for a likely 50-50 split util the GA runoff. But if they get two, the run-off doesn't matter as much.
http://www.politico.com/2014-election/predictions/senate/#.VE6qhvnF_94
The GOP may not get to 51 seats until after Dec. 6 (Louisiana’s runoff) or even Jan. 6, 2015 (Georgia’s runoff), making it difficult to actually call the Senate for Republicans even this close to Nov. 4.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-forecast-cloudy-with-a-good-chance-of-a-republican-majority/
Lawrence Lessig is trying to beat Roberts in KS, which could just tip the balance in that close race.
overall, likeliest outcome is GOP 51-52 after the GA runoff, able to defeat anything Obama would like to do. if the LA race goes to a run-off, the GOP will get it. GA would still be a toss-up in the run-off.
don't get cocky: generally in the past when i'm not right on the money i tend to overestimate gop chances.
update: GOP is leading slightly in CO, LA, still tied in KS, GA. If the GOP already has 51 seats and Orman wins, he might caucus R. Rasmussen hows Orman up 5 points.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/chamber-predicts-republican-senate-will-last-just-two-years/article/2555318
first up here's an astute and balanced argument that the Dems are likely to retake the senate in 2016.
Iowa, Arkansas, Colorado, and Alaska, are tilting toward Republican candidates. Control of the Senate itself hangs in the balance, and most major forecast models now predict the GOP has a greater than 60 percent chance of winning the chamber. - Christian Science Monitor. Prediction: run-off in Georgia, so we won't know the exact number of seats till later. I think the GOP will get 50 seats without Georgia, but will they get 51?
Colorado: Udall v Gardner, too close to call. we don't know how mail ballots will follow polling,and the polls are tied. tossups CO KS LA GA. I predict the GOP will get at least one of these, for a likely 50-50 split util the GA runoff. But if they get two, the run-off doesn't matter as much.
http://www.politico.com/2014-election/predictions/senate/#.VE6qhvnF_94
The GOP may not get to 51 seats until after Dec. 6 (Louisiana’s runoff) or even Jan. 6, 2015 (Georgia’s runoff), making it difficult to actually call the Senate for Republicans even this close to Nov. 4.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-forecast-cloudy-with-a-good-chance-of-a-republican-majority/
Lawrence Lessig is trying to beat Roberts in KS, which could just tip the balance in that close race.
overall, likeliest outcome is GOP 51-52 after the GA runoff, able to defeat anything Obama would like to do. if the LA race goes to a run-off, the GOP will get it. GA would still be a toss-up in the run-off.
don't get cocky: generally in the past when i'm not right on the money i tend to overestimate gop chances.
update: GOP is leading slightly in CO, LA, still tied in KS, GA. If the GOP already has 51 seats and Orman wins, he might caucus R. Rasmussen hows Orman up 5 points.
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