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Monday, March 07, 2011

Ensign, R-NV, won't run. Leans GOP with congresscritter and former SecState Dean Heller a likely frontrunner.
Is all this just the usual generational turnover, or are we seeing real change?
Ensign Akaka Bingaman Hutchinson Conrad Lieberman Kyl Webb, that's 8, how many more to go? I predict several D seats will turn R this year, but I don't know how many more of these voluntary retirements we'll see. On average, expect 1 incumbent to lose the primary. It probably won't be Lugar.
Senator Akaka, D-HI, 86, will retire. Stays D. This will reduce the number of palindromatic senators by 1.
Jeff Bingaman D NM will retire. Likely GOP pickup. toss-up.
Jim Webb (D-VA) will retire. Likely GOP pick-up.

Hutchinson (R-TX) Conrad (D-ND) and Lieberman (I-CT) are retiring. Probable GOP pickup in ND, Dem pickup in CT. Susan somebody Bysiewicz, who was just CT sec of state, has announced, as have a few others. Susan was removed from the ballot for Attorney General in 2010 for not enough legal experience, by the state supreme court.
Jon Kyl, R AZ is also not running in 2012.

Tea party favorite "State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is planning a statewide tour to formally announce his intention to challenge U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar in the 2012 Republican primary."

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