Friday, October 01, 2010
10/6 update: WA and WV are too close to call. CA Dem, IL GOP. NV close, Reid usually pulls off close elections. There is some spoiler tea party candidate at 7%, plus NOTA. CT Dem. So that puts it at 49 GOP, 48 DEM + NV? and two tossups. I would bet on Rossi and Manchin, but have no data supporting that. www.electoral-vote.com
oops, ky is already gop, not a pick-up, so my numbers were off by one.
expected: AR CO IN NH PA ND MO WI
tossup: IL WA WV
worth watching CA NV CT?
Control of the senate could turn on (allegations of) illegal votes in chicago.
Likely outcome -50-50 split. Possible 51 seats for GOP.
If 50-50, are there any possible party-switchers?
Off to go check the current numbers in CT. Blumenthal still up by 5%.
this post originally read
gop senate pickups:
expected: WA, AR, DE, IN.
tossup: ca, mo, co, pa, wi, oh, ky.
current: 59-41
projected 52-48 +/- 1.
i think the polling numbers will tighten up by fall.
all the polls are saying the gop will win the house;
i don't have enough data to call it.
(moved back to top)
update: expected AR, IN, KY, NH, PA, ND, MO
possibles: CA, WI, WA, CO IL
worth watching: NV. CT. WV. NY2 (Gillinbrand)
So I'm sticking with my 52-48 +/- 1 prediction. No let's make that +/- 2.
If it splits 50-50, Biden becomes even more important.
I could see WA and CO as possible GOP pickups.
I do now think the GOP will win the house, although I can't point to any specific races.
In DE, I like Christine O'Donnell but don't expect her to win.
If Coons wins that means Paul Clark becomes New Castle County Executive,
who has links to the previous Dem. corrupt county leadership.
Delaware is effectively a 1-county state, 2 at high tide. The population of the two southern rural counties has grown a lot since I lived there.
Wait wait, what about Illinois, another toss-up? That would inch the numbers a little closer to a GOP victory or tie.
So my numbers are 51 1/2 to 48 1/2, +/- 2 1/2. It's going to be close.
Update 9/26 Some of the WI polls show Johnson well ahead of Feingold. 9 is starting to seem achievable. Boxer leads in CA, Rand Paul is no sure thing in KY.
One article suggests Boxer may get a boost from Cal voters voting to legalize pot, which is 7 points up in the polls.
In WV D candidate governor Manchin is busy answering federal subpoenas, but still leads most of the polls.
oops, ky is already gop, not a pick-up, so my numbers were off by one.
expected: AR CO IN NH PA ND MO WI
tossup: IL WA WV
worth watching CA NV CT?
Control of the senate could turn on (allegations of) illegal votes in chicago.
Likely outcome -50-50 split. Possible 51 seats for GOP.
If 50-50, are there any possible party-switchers?
Off to go check the current numbers in CT. Blumenthal still up by 5%.
this post originally read
gop senate pickups:
expected: WA, AR, DE, IN.
tossup: ca, mo, co, pa, wi, oh, ky.
current: 59-41
projected 52-48 +/- 1.
i think the polling numbers will tighten up by fall.
all the polls are saying the gop will win the house;
i don't have enough data to call it.
(moved back to top)
update: expected AR, IN, KY, NH, PA, ND, MO
possibles: CA, WI, WA, CO IL
worth watching: NV. CT. WV. NY2 (Gillinbrand)
So I'm sticking with my 52-48 +/- 1 prediction. No let's make that +/- 2.
If it splits 50-50, Biden becomes even more important.
I could see WA and CO as possible GOP pickups.
I do now think the GOP will win the house, although I can't point to any specific races.
In DE, I like Christine O'Donnell but don't expect her to win.
If Coons wins that means Paul Clark becomes New Castle County Executive,
who has links to the previous Dem. corrupt county leadership.
Delaware is effectively a 1-county state, 2 at high tide. The population of the two southern rural counties has grown a lot since I lived there.
Wait wait, what about Illinois, another toss-up? That would inch the numbers a little closer to a GOP victory or tie.
So my numbers are 51 1/2 to 48 1/2, +/- 2 1/2. It's going to be close.
Update 9/26 Some of the WI polls show Johnson well ahead of Feingold. 9 is starting to seem achievable. Boxer leads in CA, Rand Paul is no sure thing in KY.
One article suggests Boxer may get a boost from Cal voters voting to legalize pot, which is 7 points up in the polls.
In WV D candidate governor Manchin is busy answering federal subpoenas, but still leads most of the polls.
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