Friday, October 28, 2005

The speaker of the house has a blog.
A second post is up with this headline:
Economic Activity Jumps 3.8 Percent in Third Quarter
But it's wrong: Measured economic activity rose 0.9% for an annual rate of 3.8%.
Off to a good start.
A sustained annual growth rate of 3.8% has a doubling time of about 20 years.
In 2005, the US economy is the world's largest. In 2025 at that rate it would be twice that size. Perhaps the rich would get the lion's share, but a doubling would impact the middle classes.
Meanwhile China's economy grows at 10%/yr.
That's three doublings in 20 years.
If wages were $25,000/yr in usa 2005, and $5000/yr in China 2005,
that works out to $50,000 and $40,000 in 2025.
That suggests Mars will not be primarily colonized by the USA.
I think though that these are conservative estimates, linear instead of hyperbolic,
and that singularity affects get strong in the short term.

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