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Sunday, December 21, 2014

http://www.news-sentinel.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20141220/NEWS/141219571

ft wayne indiana column about a voter in a wheelchair and a broken elevator, then goes into some nonsense about voter ID.

Friday, December 19, 2014


                                          #senate sponsors         #obama cuban cigar

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Philadelphia area legislator charged with bribery for taking $2k to oppose voter ID in sting.

http://www.delcotimes.com/general-news/20141216/veteran-state-rep-busted-for-taking-8750-bribe-case-that-was-deep-sixed-by-state-attorney-general-could-end-up-in-a-plea-bargain

more manuel talley stuff

https://plus.google.com/u/0/wm/1/+AnnetteHolland_Superstar/posts his granddaughter?

someone who actually uses google plus.






Sunday, December 14, 2014

a couple pictures of manuel talley i had misplaced. talley v california is the landmark case on the unconstitutionality of disclaimer rules. i'm not certain these are him but it's likely. google image search couldn't find these anywhere else online.






L.A. CORE Founder Manuel Talley Dies

December 17, 1986
A funeral service was held Tuesday for Manuel Talley, a founder of the Los Angeles chapter of the Congress of Racial Equality.
Talley was 68 when he collapsed and died of an apparent heart attack outside the Los Angeles County Courthouse on Dec. 8, said his son, Gregory.
A congressional candidate in 1974 and 1984, Talley also founded the United Freedom Assn., a group dedicated to the registration of black voters.
In addition to his son, he is survived by four daughters and four grandchildren
TIL he ran for congress. should make him easier to research.

here is the lower court decision that was overturned.
http://leagle.com/decision/1958969172CalApp2dSupp797_1861.xml/PEOPLE%20v.%20TALLEY

There's a dissent! This 1958 dissent is one of the first hints of legal recognition of a right to anonymity. 


Saturday, December 13, 2014

http://krqe.com/2014/12/12/hobbs-voter-id-special-election-saw-low-turnout/

Hobbes New Mexico is a town of 16,000. If there were an organized effort to combat voter ID, of the sort Howard Dean promised us in 2005, it might be an easy target. Can Hobbes easily afford a million dollars to fight voter ID litigation? Perhaps the state or others would step in. However, there is no such organized opposition. At most there is the ALCU and LWV.

http://www.ctlawtribune.com/home/id=1202678739266/Editorial-Judge-Rightly-Acknowledges-Error-in-Voter-ID-Case?mcode=1381212787532&curindex=0&slreturn=20141113013426

editorial on Posner admitting his mistake in Crawford.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a-case-for-whistleblower-anonymity/article6439235.ece

Several whistle-blowers have unfortunately been killed after their identity was revealed,” the affidavit states. 

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2014/04/16/negative-campaign-flier-targets-marion-county-commission-incumbent/7765737/

an example of politicians trying to use disclosure to hunt down their enemies.

rotunda on ravel in wsj
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ronald-rotunda-targeting-political-speech-for-the-next-election-1415145765

http://watchdogwire.com/nevada/2014/11/14/opinion-nevada-supreme-court-has-chance-to-uphold-free-speech/

I dont think this guy is 100% right, but I admire his passion.

I have found the case he's refering to.
http://www.campaignfreedom.org/litigation/current-litigation/citizen-outreach-v-miller/

I don't usually get involved in express advocacy arguments; they are a bit of a sideshow.
But  the brief does an adequate job of showing that the flies were not express advocacy.

That's why  the express advocacy test hasn't worked - there are too many false accusations that something is express when it isn't, that there is a chilling effect.

The columnist may be right that Citizen Outreach should have cited to the Nevada constitution as well.

http://www.npri.org/issues/publication/rip-publius-sos-miller-in-aggressive-assault-on-free-speech

says that Nevada has re-enacted the statute voided in ACLU v Heller.

During both the 2009 and 2011 Nevada Legislatures, for example, Miller aggressively pushed through legislation that would entirely ignore the McIntyre and ACLU v. Heller precedents, although neither has ever been reversed. In 2011, his key anti-free-speech provisions becameNevada law. Today, the same rule that the Ninth Circuit vacated in 2004 is essentially back, asNRS 294A.348.

However, I'm not sure that legislation overs disclaimers, maybe just disclosure.

http://www.npri.org/issues/publication/rip-publius-sos-miller-ag-masto-target-partys-opponents

he goes on to discuss the Citizens Outreach case.

My C and R keys are sticking so this entry may have more typos than usual.


Wednesday, December 10, 2014

http://www.concurringopinions.com/archives/2014/12/on-free-expression-the-first-amendment-more-questions-for-judge-posner.html

In this shocking interview Judge Posner comes out against political speech. This attitude could go a long way toward explaining his erroneous opinion in Majors v Abell, in which he upheld a disclaimer statute that's pretty clearly at odds with McIntyre v Ohio.

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/election-officials-stop-voter-wearing-nra-hat-federal-civil-rights-lawsuit-filed-georgia-1975381.htm

lawsuit over NRA hat at polls.



http://www.planetbiometrics.com/article-details/i/2483/

Canadian firm uses iris identification for voter ID.

Sunday, December 07, 2014


IJ victory in Arizona. not much press on it yet, or i am googling wrong.


http://www.elynews.com/2013/12/13/nevada-disclosure-law-fails-free-speech-muster/ This story mentions an earlier round of the litigation.

http://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2014/10/29/az-dark-money-disclosure-laws-case/

Drake said if Teilborg enjoins enforcement of the law, the state will seek immediate review by the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. And he said the state will ask that Teilborg’s ruling be placed on hold until that can happen.

http://www.ij.org/fountain-hills-arizona-speech

This case is a part of the Institute for Justice’s Citizen Speech Initiative, a national effort to restore full protection to free political speech.  The fight for truly free speech, in Arizona and beyond, will continue.


“I don’t think you can understand what sort of chaos that would cause,” Drake said.

The 2013 ruling this builds off of:
http://ij.org/images/pdf_folder/first_amendment/az_fountain_hills/az-fh-order-9_30_13.pdf

http://az.findacase.com/research/wfrmDocViewer.aspx/xq/fac.20111103_0001975.DAZ.htm/qx The 2011 preliminary injunction.

But Tom Collins, executive director of the Citizens Clean Elections Commission, said there may be an escape valve of sorts.






Saturday, December 06, 2014

Polls just closed in Louisiana. If the counting goes as expected, Cassidy will be the new senator.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/12/06/polls-close-in-louisiana-for-runoff-race-between-landrieu-and-cassidy/
A Cassidy victory would give the GOP 54 Senate seats.

Independent Angus King will remain caucused with the Democrats, unless the GOP offers him something solid like a committee chairmanship important to his Maine constituents.
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/223094-angus-king-to-caucus-with-democrats

update cassidy wins with around 58%. the gop handily won two congressional runoffs.



Thursday, December 04, 2014

Call for Action:
Send the FEC a letter that says,
"Hands off the internet."

Online: http://sers.fec.gov/forces/addcomments.htm?pid=93617

Paper: Federal Election Commission
Attn.: Amy L. Rothstein, Assistant General Counsel
999 E Street, NW
Washington, DC 20463

Be Sure to
Include: Each commenter’s full name and postal address

Deadline for
Comments: January 15, 2015

To Testify at
the Hearing: File a written comment by January 15, 2015, that includes a request to
 testify at the public hearing.

The FEC has called for public comment on the FEC's regulation of political speech on the internet, as part of a broader look at revising their disclosure policies. Here is a  statement by ViceChair Ann Ravel with some background. Skip it if legalese bores you.

In 2001, and again in 2005, intenet activists sent the FEC a then-record 1000 comments with the general idea of "Hands off the Internet", and they listened, and have mostly left us alone. But they are back, and we need to make our voices heard again. In the interests of Keeping it Simple, I'm suggesting people send in a 1-line comment that says "Hands off the internet." If we can get the word out via sites like reddit, eff, boingboing, etc., there could be dozens of us by the January 15th deadline. Please forward as appropriate, and I would appreciate copies to gtbear@gmail.com.
Thanks, Arbitrary Aardvark.

Tuesday, December 02, 2014

http://www.thestarpress.com/story/news/local/2014/12/02/election-board-fines-candidate/19804569/

 -- Yorktown Town Council member Lon Fox on Tuesday was fined $250 by the Delaware County Election Board for failing to include a legal disclaimer on a campaign mailing.

Election board fines candidateDouglas Walker, dwalker@muncie.gannett.com8:26 p.m. EST December 2, 

Fox — a Republican who last month won re-election to his board seat — at a Nov. 27 election board meeting said he had "rushed through" the process of preparing a campaign flier, and failed to include the required "paid for by" disclaimer.The mailing went to 692 homes in Yorktown.


A motion by Republican board member Brandon Murphy to conclude the Fox matter without a fine died for lack of a second.
County Clerk Steve Craycraft said the board "set a precedent last year" when it fined two political action committees — formed in support of a referendum seeking a tax hike for Muncie Community Schools — for failing to file finance reports.
Craycraft proposed Fox be fined $1,000, with all but $250 suspended. Murphy and Democratic board member Denise Moore agreed.
Mike Blanch, a Democrat who failed in a bid for a Yorktown Town Council seat, had filed a complaint over Fox's mailing, and also filed four complaints stemming from the Yorktown JAA email, which also did not include a legal disclaimer.
Delaware County Prosecutor Jeffrey Arnold, who attended both election board meetings addressing the Yorktown complaints, later said he did not intend to pursue any related criminal charges.
Contact news reporter Douglas Walker at (765) 213-5851. You can also follow him on Twitter @DouglasWalkerSP.
==
i'm looking into the history a bit. here's a local blogger who knows something:
As a parting reminder of how the election board governs, please remember the aggressive prosecution of a missing disclaimer initiated by the Delaware County Election Board.
And the absence of such prosecution when committed by the prosecutor.
https://munciepolitics.wordpress.com/tag/steve-craycraft/

http://archive.thestarpress.com/article/20100421/NEWS06/100421032/Judge-throws-Hiatt-case-out-court

WINCHESTER - A judge on Wednesday afternoon dismissed an election-related misdemeanor pending against local government critic Chris Hiatt.
Hiatt had been scheduled to stand trial Thursday on the charge, filed last April after the president of the Citizens of Delaware County for Property Tax Repeal was indicted by a Delaware County grand jury.
A November 2008 newspaper ad paid for by the CDCPTR that endorsed candidates in that month's election did not include a state-required disclaimer. ...

http://propertytaxrepeal.com/ chris hiatt's site.


Hiatt Printing
1716 N. Wheeling Ave.
Muncie, IN 47303

http://propertytaxrepeal.com/Misc%20Info/Hiatt%20Motion%20to%20Dismiss.pdf

webmaster at forgoodgovernment.com
info at hiattprinting.com








http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/12/louisiana_mayor_caught_on_tape_urging_voters_to_vote_twice.html

I don't know whether this claim that a louisiana politician told people to vote twice is true or not.

Friday, November 28, 2014

http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepagelatest/half-of-provisional-ballots-cast-in-election-not-counted-some/article_07036226-0618-5712-9ab1-5fda79ef7728.html

Thursday, November 27, 2014

The subhead to the long Elkhart Truth story by Jeff Parrott: "Chris Parish received $4.9 million in an out-of-court settlement after spending 10 years in prison for a crime he didn’t commit. Now, several insurance companies are in a legal battle over which one is responsible for paying." Interesting story.

http://indianalawblog.com/archives/2014/11/ind_decisions_c_2439.html

Indiana law blog discusses a case where a conviction as reversed because the prosecutor was aware of perjured testimony. The case cites the Indiana Law Blog discussing prosecutorial misconduct.
The case openly refers the prosecutor to the disciplinary commission.
Nothing about election law, but it goes to show how blogs can be influential.

I recently attended a CLE by a recently retired member of the attorney disciplinary commission at Barnes and Thornburg. I generally try to stay under the radar, and haven't been disbarred yet in my 20 years in the bar.

http://www.thestarpress.com/story/news/local/yorktown/2014/11/26/subpoenas-follow-unresolved-election-complaints/70121754/

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/virginia-politics/almost-cast-provisional-ballots-because-of-voter-id-law/article_c93b3725-966a-5b20-ba63-c8f28e16c6f9.html

700+ ballots stolen in VA.


george washington plunkitt
Wrote 'plunkitt of tammany hall,' a sort of users manual of machine politics. 
he was well-named. George Washington sold congress the swampland on the Potomac that became Washington DC. 


Sunday, November 23, 2014

Majors v Abell cited in california 9th circuit opinion which is up for rehearing next month.
http://www.leagle.com/decision/In%20FCO%2020140616124.xml/CHULA%20VISTA%20CITIZENS%20v.%20NORRIS
see guest post at hasen.
http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68569

That is the most footnotes I have seen in a Hasen blog. I'm responding to footnote 50.

Other circuits have recognized that candidates for public office have no First Amendment interest in anonymity by virtue of their voluntary undertaking of a public role. See, e.g., Majors v. Abell, 317 F.3d 719, 722 (7th Cir.2003) ("[The plaintiff's] standing might be questioned on the ground that a candidate has no [free speech] interest in anonymity that the statute might protect; for there are no anonymous candidates.").

This passage is poorly chosen, because Posner was wrong here. As numerous cases show, candidates do have a first amendment right in choosing the content of their messages. "Vote for Smith" is equally core speech whether spoken by Smith or someone else. This passage was one of many errors in Majors 1, although it was not as wrong as Majors 2.

I am inclined to think that there is here no right to be anonymous in proposing an initiative. But I haven't read James Bopp's briefs in the case.

http://www.brennancenter.org/legal-work/williams-yulee-v-florida-bar

On January 20th (a few days past The Night of January Sixteenth) the supreme court will hear argument in Yulee v Florida bar. It's a case about whether judges can personally solicit funds.
There's a substantial circuit split, with the 7th on the wrong side. Typically, the Brennan Center is on the side of censorship here.

There's a genuine danger that corrupt judges can shake down the trial bench, but the statute does little to fix that problem, and chills core speech. I'm a former judicial candidate and know a bit about chilled speech. Mn GOP v White should be dispositive here. I do not expect a 9-0 decision, and the opinions will make interesting reading.

Friday, November 21, 2014

Shouldn't unconstitutional statutes be repealed?
http://indianalawblog.com/archives/2014/05/ind_law_shouldn.html
a rare guest editorial at the indiana law blog, relevant to Mulholland,

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Texas/2014/11/18/Houston-Candidate-Files-Lawsuit-Against-Houston-Over-Campaign-Blackout-Period

http://www.thestarpress.com/story/news/local/2014/11/20/subpoenas-follow-unresolved-election-complaints/70024650/

The Delaware County Election Board met Thursday but failed to resolve complaints stemming from a recent Yorktown election campaign.
Resolution might be coming soon, however: Before the meeting was over, the board agreed to issue subpoenas for potential witnesses, including one who didn’t show up Thursday to provide answers to the complaints.

Mulholland v Marion County Election Board settled a couple of days ago while I was on a plane.

This was a case I had thought about intervening in if it didn't settle. There was a settlement conference at the end of October,and then it takes a little while to get all the needed signatures.

http://indianalawblog.com/documents/finaljudgmentSIGNED11-18-14.pdf

http://www.aclu-in.org/news/262-decision-upholds-candidate-s-free-speech-rights

http://blogs.wishtv.com/category/jim-shellas-political-blog/

http://www.ogdenonpolitics.com/2014/11/democratic-and-republican-attorneys.html

http://www.ogdenonpolitics.com/2014/11/mulholland-wins-slating-free-speech.html

edited to add
http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68561

Thursday, November 20, 2014

How the 24th Amendment is like a garlic press:

Professor Will Baude at Volokh compares unitasker cooking implements to legal doctrines,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2014/11/20/how-is-a-garlic-press-like-a-legal-doctrine/
He was inspired by http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2527648,
On Doctrines That Do Many Things.
Some kitchen implements, like a cleaver, or string, are generally useful, while others have a specific task. While kitchen snobs tend to look down on unitaskers, some are useful and justify their space on the counter or in the drawer. E.g. a can opener. We might only use our cherry pitter once a year, but it is worth having.

I rarely use a garlic press, but I bought one to replace one I broke in our community kitchen.
I cook for about 50 people each Saturday with Food Not Bombs.

The First and 14th Amendments are generalist tools. So we have rules which limit their use.
O'Brien, Anderson v Celebrezze, Burson v Freeman,  are cases that show the First Amendment is not absolute, but involves balancing competing interests.
Caroline Products, and the Slaughterhouse cases also show that the 14th Amendment is far from absolute, but will trigger different standards of review depending on the claims and facts.

The 24th Amendment, on the other hand, is a unitasker. It says you can't charge money to let people vote. The 3rd Amendment is another fine example - the government can't station troops in your kitchen during peacetime. There's only been one Supreme Court case resolving a 24th Amendment issue on the merits. Harman v Forssenius, 1965. In the recent Texas voter ID case, the court dissolved a stay, or stayed an injunction or something, but has not yet reached the merits. In an early morning dissent, Justice Ginsberg brought up the poll tax issue, so this case may see further developments down the road. http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/14pdf/14a393_08m1.pdf

My thesis is that when a clause of the constitution is highly specific, in the way that the 24th Amendment is specific, there is no need for balancing tests. Courts should not allow the other branches to do that one specific thing that the constitution tells them they may not do. Here, that would be charging money to vote. The lower court opinion, while it may or may not stand as matter of law, does a great job with the facts. It shows how a Texan may be charged $22, or over $100, or over $12, depending on which set of documents they use as voter ID. Even the "free" option comes with costs. The prohibition on using poll taxes and other taxes as an obstacle at the polls should be treated as an absolute.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court, faced with the same problem, construed its statute narrowly to prohibit the state from charging money for the underlying documents such as a birth certificate, and remanded to the agency for how to  handle situations such as someone born in another state. Having solved that problem, it went on to uphold the statute more generally. As Christian Adams has pointed out, it would be relatively easy for Texas to amend its voter ID plan to avoid the 24th Amendment issues. Indiana could and should do the same. I oppose voter ID for a whole host of reasons not limited to the taxation issue, but I admit there are things the states could do to fix some of the current constitutional problems with voter ID statutes. Georgia addressed this, by amending their statute to stop charging for IDs.

I live in Indiana,and have been denied the vote repeatedly since 2006, because I am unwilling to show the voter ID I have bought and paid for. I am convinced this is unconstitutional, and that as person whose votes aren't being counted, I have standing. Not everyone agrees. I have lost at both state and federal levels, and due to res judicata issues I am not suing over my most recent denial earlier this month. I had tried to recruit a few other people to be potential plaintiffs, but one ended up not voting, another showed their ID, and a 3rd was not challenged when they didn't show ID.
I have a pending public records request for the names of the people who didn't have their provisional votes counted due to ID issues in Marion County,and maybe one of them would be willing to sue.

 At this point my analogy breaks down. I'm not sure exactly how a poll tax is like a garlic press.
But I know I support freedom of the press, and the right to vote.





Friday, November 14, 2014

http://www.kfoxtv.com/news/features/top-stories/stories/Election-violations-may-have-forced-resignation-of-county-elections-administrator-57490.shtml#.VGZxV_nF_94

corruption in el paso?

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

http://www.theroot.com/blogs/the_take/2014/11/did_voter_id_suppress_the_vote_or_not.html?wpisrc=newstories

my own experience with voting this cycle was as usual i voted a provisional ballot that will get thrown away. i will not be doing a lawsuit, at least not with me as plaintiff.

of the 3 people i'd asked to be testers, one was allowed to vote w/o ID, one showed ID, one didn't vote. i've filed a publci records request for the info on who was turned down with a provisional ballot, for marion county/indianapolis,and i will forward that to the moral mondays folks, just in case their promise of counsel actually comes through.

Saturday, November 08, 2014

http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68156

Why everyone still hates the airline industry, in one tweet


https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=united+breaks+guitars

I rarely fly, but tonight I have to buy a ticket to hawaii.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/11/russell-brand-4-billion-spent-on-elections-but-feeding-the-homeless-is-illegal/

On the weekends I volunteer at Food Not Bombs. Friday night we fed 65 people at a gallery opening, today about 30 at our usual spot downtown. Today's menu was lentil curry, cheese bread, salad, crackers, something else I forget. The city is trying to shut us down. Threatening letters and visits from the health inspectors.We are trying to buy an old church so that we'll have a better kitchen.
The recent arrest of some ministers in Florida is getting lots of press.


"Klingenschmitt really believes in exorcisms for gay people and that the president is demon-possessed. And 17,000 voters in Colorado really did choose, on purpose, to make Klingenschmitt a state lawmaker."

Thursday, November 06, 2014

http://www.civilbeat.com/2014/11/1000-votes-maui-gmo-farming-ban-squeaks-by/


My sister's sign.


Wednesday, November 05, 2014

http://townhall.com/columnists/caseygiven/

this guy has the credentials to back up his column on the conservative case against voter ID.
http://townhall.com/columnists/caseygiven/2014/11/04/the-conservative-case-against-voter-id-laws-n1913645

http://www.texasobserver.org/texas-voter-id-cards-auctioneers/
got this posted at hasen

ed morrisey argues that angus king and even joe manchin could switch parties. that is, king,an independent, could caucus r instead of d. dunno, but i wouldn't rule it out.

indiana:
While the exact partisan breakdown of each chamber was not finalized at press time, Republicans appeared headed to own up to 71 seats in the 100-member House and 40 seats in the 50-member Senate when the Legislature convenes in January for a four-month session focused on the state budget.
That would be an increase of two GOP seats in the House and three in the Senate; a significant blow to Statehouse Democrats who had hoped to whittle down the Republican majorities toward a possible Democratic takeover of at least the House by the end of the decade.

the country
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/11/05/republican-sweep-extends-to-state-level/?tid=trending_strip_6

Cool Moose affiliated candidate gets 22% on RI Gov. race, spent $40.

http://www.reddit.com/r/AdviceAnimals/comments/2lbqpu/good_guy_bob_healey/

http://news.yahoo.com/how-hillary-clinton-won-the-2014-midterms-075943434.html



Although the final vote came in around 58 percent, under Florida law, the amendment needed 60 percent of the vote to become a constitutional amendment. 
MedMarijuana loses in FL, but a loss like that is  a win. Legislators will have a hard time
keeping pot illegal for cancer patients, knowing 58% of thier constitu-ents disagree.
Pot is now legal in Oregon and Alaska, and legal-ish in DC.

All 3 IPS School Board incumbents lose election
All three IPS School Board incumbents lost their seats in Tuesday’s election.
The newly elected board members were supported by the Indianapolis Chamber of Commerce and education reform groups like Stand for Children Indiana.

In Indiana, where 321,475 people applied for a concealed handgun license during this same time period, black men are 5.54 times more likely to be denied a license than white men, while black women are 7.26 times more likely to be denied one than white women. Whether we are talking about Texas or Indiana, if you are black, you are significantly less likely to be issued this form of identification.

I can think of several possible partial explanations for the disparity.
Blacks are less likely to live in rural areas and want the gun just for hunting.
Blacks, as a group, are more likely to use a gun for offensive purposes, shooting or robbing people.
Blacks are more likely to have a felony conviction, and may be more likely to have a record of mental illness. 
Blacks may be less willing or able to spend the extra funds to have their application "typed" at a bail bond agency, which knows the score and can streamline acceptance.
Blacks may be less adverse to submitting an application that won't be granted.

Still, these figures are problematic for Texas. I'm not sure Indianans can use a gun license as a voting license.


Koch beats Reid in Nevada:
Neither Harry Reid or the Koch brothers were on the ballot, but Reid will no longer be majority leader of the senate. He will probably, but not definitely, be minority leader.
The GOP took the Nevada house and senate.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/11/05/republican-sweep-extends-to-state-level/?tid=trending_strip_6

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2014/11/05/harry-reid-the-unamerican-and-soon-to-be-former-senate-majority-leader-good-riddance/
I don't agree with much of what bernstein says here, but it discusses the Koch/Reid conflict.









My senate predictions were off  a little. I didn't foresee the GOP getting NC, and I had the other guy in KS. The GOP won Georgia outright instead of having to do a runoff.
I was right about AK, AR, IA, MT, SD, WV, LA. So they get 9, not 7. I had NH as a long shot.
I didn't think it would be close in VA.

I may have one new case coming out of this cycle, but can't say anything about it yet.

No upsets at home in Indiana or Cincinnati where I am blogging from.
Tarbell got 4% as a write-in. His campaign signs are all over the neighborhood I'm staying in.
He'd gotten 44% two year ago, but got back int he race too late yto get the D nomination.



Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Even in Washington, D.C, that border town with Southern efficiency and Northern charm, a Republican mayoral candidate looks set to put together a respectable performance.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/03/return-of-the-northeastern-republican.html

http://yourfuckingpollingplace.com/

Monday, November 03, 2014

http://www.indianaforefront.com

a bunch of hoosier political bloggers, site is new to me.

(WASHINGTON) -- North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan is sitting on the most expensive hot seat in Senate history.

Spending in her Senate race against Republican State House Speaker Thom Tillis topped $100 million, according to the Sunlight Foundation -- $10 million more than the second most expensive Senate contest this year in Colorado, and roughly $30 million more than the priciest race in history before 2014.
link

senate poll update:
colorado: GOP has slight lead.
iowa: tied, lean r
new hampshire: statistical tie
ga: runoff expected
alaska: gop only up by 1%
louisiana: 50% chance of GOP pickup, 50% runoff.
nc Dem+3.
KS tie
AR gop +8

so gop pickups include WV SD LA AR IA which am i forgetting? Montana.
CO AK too close to call. assume 1 each.
ind pickup KS maybe.
that's the 50-50 scenario. but i know i'm forgetting one. With MT that's 51.
long shot: NH.

"Joni Ernst would mean — coming to the United States Senate — that Mitch McConnell would be leader of the United States Senate, who agrees with her on everything," Reid told Politico.

The Dems will probably get the senate back in 2016, when the GOP has to defend more seats.




Sunday, November 02, 2014

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/18/state-appeals-ruling-calling-marion-county-judicial-election-system-unconstitutional/17460479/

forget if i posted this yet.




http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2014/11/02/yes-hoosiers-really-election/18268303/

http://www.ibj.com/articles/50281-morris-another-plea-to-vote

In 2004, participation in the election by registered voters was about 50%. In 2005, Indiana enacted voter ID. In this week's election, turnout is expected to be about 25%. Should we blame voter ID?

Well, of course not. One trend we saw starting with the 2006 election was that in the over 65 crowd, who can do no-excuse absentee balloting, absentee ballots about doubled. I haven't seen the stats for that since 2006. It would be a useful number to track.

Similarly, voter ID is not the main reason people in Indiana vote less than in Illinois.
In 2010, Illinois turnout was 51 percent of registered voters, compared to 41 percent in Indiana. In 2006, Illinois recorded 49 percent turnout versus 40 percent in Indiana. Illinois had 52 percent turnout in 2002, while Indiana was at 39 percent.
Even in 1982, a recent peak year for Indiana midterm turnout at 62.5 percent, voter turnout in Illinois was 65 percent.
In presidential and Indiana gubernatorial election years, such as 2012, voter turnout rates in Illinois (59 percent) and Indiana (56 percent) are more similar.
http://www.nwitimes.com/news/state-and-regional/illinois/crossing-the-line----voter-turnout/article_8035f5e1-99a8-5470-8633-e1232f27571e.html (annoying chipotle ad)


The law turnout this week is not (solely) because people have stopped voting due to voter ID.
My point is, some of the voter ID apologists have been claiming that voter turnout, especially among minorities, has been up since Indiana passed voter ID. That had little to nothing to do with voter ID,and everything to do with, first, a tight late primary contest between Clinton and Obama, and then 2 cycles of the first half-black president. Voter ID wasn't the reason for the upturn, and isn't the reason for the downturn this week. http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2014/11/02/yes-hoosiers-really-election/18268303/Voter ID probably discourages 1 to 2 percent of Indiana (former) voters, partially offset by higher turn-out by those upset about disenfranchisement. Usually, 1-2% doesnt swing an election. Sometimes, however, it does. I am the 1%.

http://dailysignal.com/2014/11/02/voter-fraud-real-threat-integrity-elections/

this article/editorial has the wrong conclusions, but addresses important questions.
. As John Fund and I outline in our new book.. oh, never mind. Oh, it's Hans, never mind.
or there's this one by Ed Meese. http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/11/02/edwin-meese-kenneth-blackwell-election/18126049/



http://www.in.gov/sos/elections/2400.htm 

tune in tuesday for election results.

As a final point, because the majority finds the law constitutional, the majority is not required to 
address the State’s contention that these plaintiffs do not have standing to challenge the voter ID law, and 
does not do so. I believe all citizens have the standing to attack a statute that unconstitutionally denies 
any voter the right to exercise his or her electoral franchise. We all have an interest in an election that is 
lawful, and the right to vote is meaningful only if others of like mind are also entitled to vote according to 
the Constitution. Indeed, it is difficult to conceive of a right that is more clearly a ―public right‖ than the 7
right to vote and participate in a lawful election. It therefore may be enforced under the public standing 
doctrine long recognized by this Court and most recently reconfirmed in Cittadine v. Department of 
Transportation, 790 N.E.2d 978 (Ind. 2003).
In sum, the plaintiffs’ allegations of substantial impediments to the exercise of the right to vote are 
sufficient to withstand a motion to dismiss the complaint. I would remand this case to permit the 
plaintiffs to attempt to prove their case. Boehhm, dissenting in Rokita v LWV

Because there is not article III, standing is different in Indiana courts than in federal courts.
I recently found a lawprof post criticizing my litigation in Stewart v Marion County Election Board,
saying I didnt have standing, so I've been thinking about this.
I think the district court was wrong in saying I didn't have standing, but I didn't appeal that case.
For more on standing see Majors v Abell (posner) and Stewart  v Taylor (S.D Ind. 1997).


http://indianalawblog.com/archives/2014/10/ind_courts_prof_5.html

article re state constitutional law in indiana

http://mckinneylaw.iu.edu/ilr/pdf/vol47p1217.pdf

Saturday, November 01, 2014

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/11/01/ohio-kentucky-judicial-races-choices/18265883/ from hasen.

this could be an opportunity for the libertarians, if they had their shit together.

The Dow-Jones is at 17,390.52. Gas is $3/gallon. Unemployment is what, 6%, 
Housing prices are up, a little. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.41%  rallied 64.60 points, or 1.4%, to 4,630.74 and closed at the highest level since March 2000. Gold sinks as dollar soars: Gold prices GCZ4, -2.09%  were trading at levels not seen since 2010, dropping nearly $34 to $1,164.30, with the dollar USDJPY, +2.84%  trading around ¥112.01.
These factors should be good for the party holding the white house. But in a 4 billion election, it isn't seeming to matter.

a modest proposal

Ilya Shapiro IShapiro@cato.org

Oct 31 (1 day ago)
to DavidDalelaw-election
Yes and this is why we must restrict megaphones, printing presses, laptops, and internet access; otherwise those without resources to buy such things will be drowned out by the voices of those who do. Also, if I hear something critical of me on the news or read about it in the newspaper, I should have a right to respond. After all, we must keep the field level. Maybe we should just create zones to which to restrict political speech (and it's too hard to police the express/issue advocacy line so just anyone expressing in public a thought tangential to policy issues will be fined if not in that zone). For that matter, some people live closer to the polling station than others; they should be forced to walk around the ballot box until they've covered as much ground as their more distant neighbors. But wait, some of those people are disabled and can't walk; ok, voting is only allowed in wheelchairs. But not everyone can afford a wheelchair, so taxpayers will fund them. Aw heck let's just give the government all the money and property and let it figure out how much we get to use for ourselves, perhaps according to some rubric of how much we deserve...
 
I think I'll dress up as Harrison Bergeron tonight.
 
Ilya Shapiro
Senior Fellow in Constitutional Studies,
Editor-in-Chief of the Cato Supreme Court Review
Cato Institute

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