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Tuesday, April 26, 2016

A possible path for the North Carolina case:

It goes next to a panel of the 4th circuit, probably the same panel as before. While stuck with the trial court's findings of fact, they are likely to see the law differently. Wild-ass guess rather than close study suggests they may reverse part of the this case. My focus is mostly on the voter ID issues, but there are a bunch of live issues in the case. If it ends up being Hillary v. Trump, North Carolina shouldn't matter much, but that's too soon to say.
 Then, it goes either en banc (in which case who knows) or to the Supreme Court,
where I would count Breyer Ginsberg Kagan Sotomayer as 4 likely votes to uphold,
with the Chief and Kennedy being flexible, perhaps seeking a narrow ruling, and Thomas and Alito opposed. Of course if President Trump appoints Cruz, that could be a different ball game.

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