Tuesday, October 14, 2014
I had been saying that the senate looks to go GOP, then about a month ago it became too close to call. Now I think it's back to the GOP.
I expect the GOP to pick up seats in WV, AK, AR (leans GOP, still a maybe), SD. That's 4 of the 5 they need. 50% chance of losing KS to an independent who would probably caucus D, but hasn't said.
so say they are are at 3 1/2. I think McConnell keeps KY R.
There are 6 toss-up states, including CO, NH, LA, NC, IA, GA. The odds are decent the GOP will pick up at least 2 of those, so ending up with at least 50, maybe 51, 52, or even 53. I suppose Biden could become king if there's a 50-50 split.
The NC race could wind up in the courts; it's not clear that the election will be outside the margin of litigation. I would prefer not to see another Bush v Gore with the courts deciding control of the senate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map.html
update:
meanwhile in the house, says politico:
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/house-democrats-retreat-111875.html#ixzz3GBmy3j4o
I expect the GOP to pick up seats in WV, AK, AR (leans GOP, still a maybe), SD. That's 4 of the 5 they need. 50% chance of losing KS to an independent who would probably caucus D, but hasn't said.
so say they are are at 3 1/2. I think McConnell keeps KY R.
There are 6 toss-up states, including CO, NH, LA, NC, IA, GA. The odds are decent the GOP will pick up at least 2 of those, so ending up with at least 50, maybe 51, 52, or even 53. I suppose Biden could become king if there's a 50-50 split.
The NC race could wind up in the courts; it's not clear that the election will be outside the margin of litigation. I would prefer not to see another Bush v Gore with the courts deciding control of the senate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map.html
update:
meanwhile in the house, says politico:
Three weeks out from an election that could give Republicans a historic majority, House Democrats are resorting to the painful strategy of retreat.
Faced with a perilous midterm environment and a sudden gush of Republican money, Democrats are shifting cash from blue-chip recruits to prop up teetering incumbents. The goal is to minimize losses and keep Republicans from their most dominant hold on the House since Harry Truman’s presidency — potentially expelling Democrats from the speaker’s chair for years to come.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/house-democrats-retreat-111875.html#ixzz3GBmy3j4o
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