Friday, May 13, 2011
The return of Feingold?
Wisconsin senator Kohl (D) won't run again. As the still-being counted Supreme Court race shows, WI is a toss-up state. Russ Feingold would probably like his old job back. There's no obvious GOP front-runner. I'll rate this one as toss-up. Even if the Dems keep the seat, it will take money and effort. On the other hand, the GOP and tea party may spend money and effort trying to win the seat that could have gone elsewhere.
bumping previous post
Monday, March 07, 2011
Ensign, R-NV, won't run. Leans GOP with congresscritter and former SecState Dean Heller a likely frontrunner.
Is all this just the usual generational turnover, or are we seeing real change?
Ensign Akaka Bingaman Hutchinson Conrad Lieberman Kyl Webb, that's 8, how many more to go? I predict several D seats will turn R this year, but I don't know how many more of these voluntary retirements we'll see. On average, expect 1 incumbent to lose the primary. It probably won't be Lugar.
Senator Akaka, D-HI, 86, will retire. Stays D. This will reduce the number of palindromatic senators by 1.
Jeff Bingaman D NM will retire. Likely GOP pickup. toss-up.
Jim Webb (D-VA) will retire. Likely GOP pick-up.
Hutchinson (R-TX) Conrad (D-ND) and Lieberman (I-CT) are retiring. Probable GOP pickup in ND, Dem pickup in CT. Susan somebody Bysiewicz, who was just CT sec of state, has announced, as have a few others. Susan was removed from the ballot for Attorney General in 2010 for not enough legal experience, by the state supreme court.
Jon Kyl, R AZ is also not running in 2012.
Tea party favorite "State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is planning a statewide tour to formally announce his intention to challenge U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar in the 2012 Republican primary."
Ensign, of course, resigned and may face indictment after the senate ethics committee referred his case to Justice, a rare move.
Kohl Ensign Akaka Bingaman Hutchinson Conrad Lieberman Kyl Webb, 9 down 41 to go.
In Indiana Joe Donnelly is leaving his congressional seat to take on Lugar/Mourdock, for a possible pick-up of one more house seat for the
OP. Lugar would beat Donnelly; a Mourdock/Donnelly race leans GOP.
Race Now Likely outcome:
WI Kohl D Tossup
NV Ensign R R (Heller)
HI Akaka D D
NM Bingaman D leans R
TX Hutchinson R R
ND Conrad D R
CT Lieberman I leans D
AZ Kyl R leans R
VA Webb D leans R?
So in open seats so far the GOP appears posed to pick up about 3, which would be 50-50.
I assume a GOP vice-president is more likely in the event of a tie.
Meanwhile way more D seats are in play in 2012 than GOP ones.
Feingold could run again and lose again, like Adlai.
In 2012, there are 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents up.
At risk D seats include
Missouri Claire McCaskill.
Montana Jon Tester is polling at under 50%, congressman reberg likely challenger.
Nebraska Ben Nelson considered weakened, but no current opponent
Florida Bill Nelson, I didnt realize there were two Senator Nelsons.
W Virginia Manchin as incumbent has the edge.
At risk GOP seats include
MA
So a GOP pickup of the senate is likely, but not by much.
I expect I'll be updating this post many times before 11/2012.
wild guess: R 52 D 47 I 1.
These pictures of the senate majority and minority leaders illustrate the stark differences between the two parties. Note how McConnell leans slightly to the right, while Reid leans slightly to the left. McConnell's tie is blue, while Reid wears a blue tie.
Wisconsin senator Kohl (D) won't run again. As the still-being counted Supreme Court race shows, WI is a toss-up state. Russ Feingold would probably like his old job back. There's no obvious GOP front-runner. I'll rate this one as toss-up. Even if the Dems keep the seat, it will take money and effort. On the other hand, the GOP and tea party may spend money and effort trying to win the seat that could have gone elsewhere.
bumping previous post
Monday, March 07, 2011
Ensign, R-NV, won't run. Leans GOP with congresscritter and former SecState Dean Heller a likely frontrunner.
Is all this just the usual generational turnover, or are we seeing real change?
Ensign Akaka Bingaman Hutchinson Conrad Lieberman Kyl Webb, that's 8, how many more to go? I predict several D seats will turn R this year, but I don't know how many more of these voluntary retirements we'll see. On average, expect 1 incumbent to lose the primary. It probably won't be Lugar.
Senator Akaka, D-HI, 86, will retire. Stays D. This will reduce the number of palindromatic senators by 1.
Jeff Bingaman D NM will retire. Likely GOP pickup. toss-up.
Jim Webb (D-VA) will retire. Likely GOP pick-up.
Hutchinson (R-TX) Conrad (D-ND) and Lieberman (I-CT) are retiring. Probable GOP pickup in ND, Dem pickup in CT. Susan somebody Bysiewicz, who was just CT sec of state, has announced, as have a few others. Susan was removed from the ballot for Attorney General in 2010 for not enough legal experience, by the state supreme court.
Jon Kyl, R AZ is also not running in 2012.
Tea party favorite "State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is planning a statewide tour to formally announce his intention to challenge U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar in the 2012 Republican primary."
Ensign, of course, resigned and may face indictment after the senate ethics committee referred his case to Justice, a rare move.
Kohl Ensign Akaka Bingaman Hutchinson Conrad Lieberman Kyl Webb, 9 down 41 to go.
In Indiana Joe Donnelly is leaving his congressional seat to take on Lugar/Mourdock, for a possible pick-up of one more house seat for the
OP. Lugar would beat Donnelly; a Mourdock/Donnelly race leans GOP.
Race Now Likely outcome:
WI Kohl D Tossup
NV Ensign R R (Heller)
HI Akaka D D
NM Bingaman D leans R
TX Hutchinson R R
ND Conrad D R
CT Lieberman I leans D
AZ Kyl R leans R
VA Webb D leans R?
So in open seats so far the GOP appears posed to pick up about 3, which would be 50-50.
I assume a GOP vice-president is more likely in the event of a tie.
Meanwhile way more D seats are in play in 2012 than GOP ones.
Feingold could run again and lose again, like Adlai.
In 2012, there are 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents up.
At risk D seats include
Missouri Claire McCaskill.
Montana Jon Tester is polling at under 50%, congressman reberg likely challenger.
Nebraska Ben Nelson considered weakened, but no current opponent
Florida Bill Nelson, I didnt realize there were two Senator Nelsons.
W Virginia Manchin as incumbent has the edge.
At risk GOP seats include
MA
So a GOP pickup of the senate is likely, but not by much.
I expect I'll be updating this post many times before 11/2012.
wild guess: R 52 D 47 I 1.
These pictures of the senate majority and minority leaders illustrate the stark differences between the two parties. Note how McConnell leans slightly to the right, while Reid leans slightly to the left. McConnell's tie is blue, while Reid wears a blue tie.
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